Ah, the moment we've all been waiting for is finally here. Opening day is always a special day because everyone still has hope that their team can contend. Its especially nice for me as an Orioles fan because its likely the last time the O's will a top the AL East division leaderboard. While my day was relatively swamped with homework and other bureaucratic mundaneness I always manage to find time for some baseball. For tonight I'll jump straight into the happenings of the Pilam Fantasy Baseball League...
Now that teams have cleared their dead weight from the draft we can get into the real transactions. As for today Chotch added Nick Adenhart of the LAA. I've always been a semi fan of Adenhart. He's put up solid stats in the minors before (10-2, 1.95 era, 99 ks in 106 IP at single A in 2007) but has been somewhat stagnant since. I did get a chance to watch Adenhart once last year when he was called up and from what I recall he had a difficult time maintaining a high 90s fastball (not good for RHP). Also he was relatively wild, which is expected from most young pitchers. But Adenhart has been thrust in the no. 3 spot by default and is coming off a decent spring performance, so there is certainly hope for this 22 yr old pitcher...
Rory made a move for Ken Griffey today. A healthy Griffey can deliver 25 HRs but we all know thats not going to happen. When he's healthy he'll be a servicable 3 or 4 OF. Messier dropped Elvis Andrus for Emilio Bonafacio. Andrus had a considerable amount of hype coming into the season as he was handed the starting SS job for TEX. However, he's done little at the plate in the minors and unfortunately for us, defense doesn't count in fantasy. Honestly, I dont know much about Bonaficio but he did hit the first inside the park HR on opening day in 41 yrs today. He doesn't offer you much in terms of power but he did steal 40+ bases 4 yrs straight from 2004-2007. Also he was batting leadoff today in an underrated FLA lineup and qualifies at 2B. All and all definitely worth a flier in an 18 team league. Finally Rich dropped Dallas Braden and added David Purcey. Purcey certainly has the ability to rack up some Ks (121 Ks in 117 IPs at AAA last year), and is coming off a pretty solid spring, but he definitely has some walk issues (10 BBs compared to 13 Ks this spring). Braden actually pitched okay today (6 IP, 3 ER, 3 Ks). Servicable but not exciting. Feeling out the available FA pitching options early in the season is key so I'm fine with this move...
Other than that people seem to be messing around with their trading block wants and needs. In doing so you blatantly admit that you had a poor draft and left yourself with some inadequancies. For me the first few weeks are about patience and I probably won't even think about trades for at least a couple of weeks...
My final rants:
1) Why does baseball open up in cold climates? Why did BOS vs TB open in BOS? Why couldn't they have opened up in TB and we wouldn't have to worry about the dreaded "PPD"?
2) The Orioles beat the Yanks today. Booyakasha...
3) Play ESPN's Streak for Cash. You pick the outcome of one matchup at a time across various sports. I become more and more addicted by the day...
Until next time
Monday, April 6, 2009
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Post Draft Analysis
Last sunday night the 18 owners of my main fantasy league sat down for what would inevitably be a marathon of a fantasy baseball draft. I'd like to recap that draft and throw out some picks that I thought were pretty solid, some picks that I thought weren't so good, and some picks that straight up made me want to barf. So without further adieu here we go...
The Good:
Alex Rodriguez 2.11 (pick 29) - Arod provides elitest production that no one in the league not named Hanley Ramirez or Albert Pujols can match. In a H2H league his current injury status is less important. Remember you aren't completely losing production from your 3B position. You will be able to pick up some of the slack with a decent late round pick or FA pickup. Honestly, I would have been calling Arod's name right around pick 12 when Utley came off the board. But I definitely would have taken him before Aramis Ramirez (who went 7 picks before Arod) and probably before Evan Longoria (who went 12 picks before Arod). Arod at 75% is almost definitely better than either of those two. This team that got Arod landed the Howard/Arod punch. Thats pretty deadly if you ask me...
Jason Motte 15.07 (pick 252) - Everything I've read have this guy locked in as the closer of the St. Louis Cardinals. Being able to nab a starting closer after the first 200 picks is certainly nice work. The best part about this pick is he came after Chris Perez (15.6 and now in the minors), and Ryan Franklin (14.08)...
The Bad -
Russell Martin 3.01 (pick 37) - Eight spots ahead of his MDP (45). MDP is a collection of ADP data from the major mock draft sites out there (ie. Mock Draft Central, Couchmanagers, Yahoo, ESPN, etc). For more information on that check here. More importantly Martin came off the board 15 picks before his superior counterpart Brian McCann. Martin slows down routinely every year, and dont think playing 3B is going to help him out. If anything its going to wear him down more as he'll get less days off. I'm fine with people using high picks on catchers but make sure you get the right one if you are going to go that route.
Carlos Marmol 7.09 (pick 117) - If Marmol was the closer this would be an excellent pick, but otherwise its basically the highest I've ever seen a middle reliever go. Putting Marmol in as the setup guy makes all the sense in the world from a real baseball standpoint, and is just another reason why Piniella is one of the best managers of all time, but it absolutely crushes his fantasy value. Even if Marmol is never named the closer he'll probably pick up 5-10 saves, but I wouldn't bet a 7th round pick that he'll officially get the closer job someday...
B.J. Ryan 7.03 (pick 111) - Shame on me for making this pick. I've never thought Ryan would be able to stay healthy but in the heat of the moment I reached for a closer for fear that I would miss out on the good options. Basically what happened was I wanted Beckett in 4th round and then I was going to take Soria on the backswing in the 5th round. But Beckett went right in front of me so I went with Bruce in the 4th and Billingsley in the 5th. Then I had pretty much had to wait two more rounds for a closer. Essentially I suck and I ended up with a closer that can't hit 88 MPHs on his fastball in an organization that is never forth coming about their injuries...
The Ugly -
Draft Shenanigans - Not a pick but something that upset me. I had a pretty late pick in the second round and its no secret that I really wanted Nick Markakis in that spot. Some of the other league members starting commenting on this and went as far to say Markakis' name in the chat box. Straight up shenanigans if you ask me. Never talk about a player who hasn't been drafted, thats just poor etiquette IMO...
Jimmy Rollins 1.13 (pick 13) - What is with the world's enfatuation with Jimmy Rollins? The guy has 1 elite year ('07 139/30/94/41/.296) 1 pretty good year ('06 127/25/36/.277) and the rest of his time has all just been pretty decent (his career averages are 105/15/68/36/.277). I know he provides good production at a lite position (SS) and certainly has the potential to put up elite production, but personally I'm not ready to invest a first round pick in the guy. But I've said some things that were wrong in the past so maybe I'll be wrong again...
The Insane -
Messier's draft strategy - The first 6 picks for this team went as the follow: Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Joe Nathan, Roy Oswalt, Jonathan Broxton. Certainly straying from the norm. Honestly, its a good idea. While were all out there zigging he's zagging his way to the front of the pack. A similar strategy last year was effective but his team fizzled down the stretch. We'll see if he can pull off a better finish this year. For me, I'd rather build an all around decent team that has a good probability of winning any of the 10 categories than blatantly punt categories this early in the season. Plus at the end of the day pitchers are more injury prone than hitters (although messier did compile an unbelievably healthy pitching staff). At the end of the day it takes risks to win this league so at the very least Messier put himself in a good position to win...
Well thats what I've got for this update. I'll try and get these rolling more often as the season progresses. As for me, I'll be spending this weekend watching the final four matchups (although my bracket is pretty fucked), furiously finishing my taxes, and probably playing some golf. Catch you on the flip side...
The Good:
Alex Rodriguez 2.11 (pick 29) - Arod provides elitest production that no one in the league not named Hanley Ramirez or Albert Pujols can match. In a H2H league his current injury status is less important. Remember you aren't completely losing production from your 3B position. You will be able to pick up some of the slack with a decent late round pick or FA pickup. Honestly, I would have been calling Arod's name right around pick 12 when Utley came off the board. But I definitely would have taken him before Aramis Ramirez (who went 7 picks before Arod) and probably before Evan Longoria (who went 12 picks before Arod). Arod at 75% is almost definitely better than either of those two. This team that got Arod landed the Howard/Arod punch. Thats pretty deadly if you ask me...
Jason Motte 15.07 (pick 252) - Everything I've read have this guy locked in as the closer of the St. Louis Cardinals. Being able to nab a starting closer after the first 200 picks is certainly nice work. The best part about this pick is he came after Chris Perez (15.6 and now in the minors), and Ryan Franklin (14.08)...
The Bad -
Russell Martin 3.01 (pick 37) - Eight spots ahead of his MDP (45). MDP is a collection of ADP data from the major mock draft sites out there (ie. Mock Draft Central, Couchmanagers, Yahoo, ESPN, etc). For more information on that check here. More importantly Martin came off the board 15 picks before his superior counterpart Brian McCann. Martin slows down routinely every year, and dont think playing 3B is going to help him out. If anything its going to wear him down more as he'll get less days off. I'm fine with people using high picks on catchers but make sure you get the right one if you are going to go that route.
Carlos Marmol 7.09 (pick 117) - If Marmol was the closer this would be an excellent pick, but otherwise its basically the highest I've ever seen a middle reliever go. Putting Marmol in as the setup guy makes all the sense in the world from a real baseball standpoint, and is just another reason why Piniella is one of the best managers of all time, but it absolutely crushes his fantasy value. Even if Marmol is never named the closer he'll probably pick up 5-10 saves, but I wouldn't bet a 7th round pick that he'll officially get the closer job someday...
B.J. Ryan 7.03 (pick 111) - Shame on me for making this pick. I've never thought Ryan would be able to stay healthy but in the heat of the moment I reached for a closer for fear that I would miss out on the good options. Basically what happened was I wanted Beckett in 4th round and then I was going to take Soria on the backswing in the 5th round. But Beckett went right in front of me so I went with Bruce in the 4th and Billingsley in the 5th. Then I had pretty much had to wait two more rounds for a closer. Essentially I suck and I ended up with a closer that can't hit 88 MPHs on his fastball in an organization that is never forth coming about their injuries...
The Ugly -
Draft Shenanigans - Not a pick but something that upset me. I had a pretty late pick in the second round and its no secret that I really wanted Nick Markakis in that spot. Some of the other league members starting commenting on this and went as far to say Markakis' name in the chat box. Straight up shenanigans if you ask me. Never talk about a player who hasn't been drafted, thats just poor etiquette IMO...
Jimmy Rollins 1.13 (pick 13) - What is with the world's enfatuation with Jimmy Rollins? The guy has 1 elite year ('07 139/30/94/41/.296) 1 pretty good year ('06 127/25/36/.277) and the rest of his time has all just been pretty decent (his career averages are 105/15/68/36/.277). I know he provides good production at a lite position (SS) and certainly has the potential to put up elite production, but personally I'm not ready to invest a first round pick in the guy. But I've said some things that were wrong in the past so maybe I'll be wrong again...
The Insane -
Messier's draft strategy - The first 6 picks for this team went as the follow: Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Joe Nathan, Roy Oswalt, Jonathan Broxton. Certainly straying from the norm. Honestly, its a good idea. While were all out there zigging he's zagging his way to the front of the pack. A similar strategy last year was effective but his team fizzled down the stretch. We'll see if he can pull off a better finish this year. For me, I'd rather build an all around decent team that has a good probability of winning any of the 10 categories than blatantly punt categories this early in the season. Plus at the end of the day pitchers are more injury prone than hitters (although messier did compile an unbelievably healthy pitching staff). At the end of the day it takes risks to win this league so at the very least Messier put himself in a good position to win...
Well thats what I've got for this update. I'll try and get these rolling more often as the season progresses. As for me, I'll be spending this weekend watching the final four matchups (although my bracket is pretty fucked), furiously finishing my taxes, and probably playing some golf. Catch you on the flip side...
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