Last sunday night the 18 owners of my main fantasy league sat down for what would inevitably be a marathon of a fantasy baseball draft. I'd like to recap that draft and throw out some picks that I thought were pretty solid, some picks that I thought weren't so good, and some picks that straight up made me want to barf. So without further adieu here we go...
The Good:
Alex Rodriguez 2.11 (pick 29) - Arod provides elitest production that no one in the league not named Hanley Ramirez or Albert Pujols can match. In a H2H league his current injury status is less important. Remember you aren't completely losing production from your 3B position. You will be able to pick up some of the slack with a decent late round pick or FA pickup. Honestly, I would have been calling Arod's name right around pick 12 when Utley came off the board. But I definitely would have taken him before Aramis Ramirez (who went 7 picks before Arod) and probably before Evan Longoria (who went 12 picks before Arod). Arod at 75% is almost definitely better than either of those two. This team that got Arod landed the Howard/Arod punch. Thats pretty deadly if you ask me...
Jason Motte 15.07 (pick 252) - Everything I've read have this guy locked in as the closer of the St. Louis Cardinals. Being able to nab a starting closer after the first 200 picks is certainly nice work. The best part about this pick is he came after Chris Perez (15.6 and now in the minors), and Ryan Franklin (14.08)...
The Bad -
Russell Martin 3.01 (pick 37) - Eight spots ahead of his MDP (45). MDP is a collection of ADP data from the major mock draft sites out there (ie. Mock Draft Central, Couchmanagers, Yahoo, ESPN, etc). For more information on that check here. More importantly Martin came off the board 15 picks before his superior counterpart Brian McCann. Martin slows down routinely every year, and dont think playing 3B is going to help him out. If anything its going to wear him down more as he'll get less days off. I'm fine with people using high picks on catchers but make sure you get the right one if you are going to go that route.
Carlos Marmol 7.09 (pick 117) - If Marmol was the closer this would be an excellent pick, but otherwise its basically the highest I've ever seen a middle reliever go. Putting Marmol in as the setup guy makes all the sense in the world from a real baseball standpoint, and is just another reason why Piniella is one of the best managers of all time, but it absolutely crushes his fantasy value. Even if Marmol is never named the closer he'll probably pick up 5-10 saves, but I wouldn't bet a 7th round pick that he'll officially get the closer job someday...
B.J. Ryan 7.03 (pick 111) - Shame on me for making this pick. I've never thought Ryan would be able to stay healthy but in the heat of the moment I reached for a closer for fear that I would miss out on the good options. Basically what happened was I wanted Beckett in 4th round and then I was going to take Soria on the backswing in the 5th round. But Beckett went right in front of me so I went with Bruce in the 4th and Billingsley in the 5th. Then I had pretty much had to wait two more rounds for a closer. Essentially I suck and I ended up with a closer that can't hit 88 MPHs on his fastball in an organization that is never forth coming about their injuries...
The Ugly -
Draft Shenanigans - Not a pick but something that upset me. I had a pretty late pick in the second round and its no secret that I really wanted Nick Markakis in that spot. Some of the other league members starting commenting on this and went as far to say Markakis' name in the chat box. Straight up shenanigans if you ask me. Never talk about a player who hasn't been drafted, thats just poor etiquette IMO...
Jimmy Rollins 1.13 (pick 13) - What is with the world's enfatuation with Jimmy Rollins? The guy has 1 elite year ('07 139/30/94/41/.296) 1 pretty good year ('06 127/25/36/.277) and the rest of his time has all just been pretty decent (his career averages are 105/15/68/36/.277). I know he provides good production at a lite position (SS) and certainly has the potential to put up elite production, but personally I'm not ready to invest a first round pick in the guy. But I've said some things that were wrong in the past so maybe I'll be wrong again...
The Insane -
Messier's draft strategy - The first 6 picks for this team went as the follow: Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Joe Nathan, Roy Oswalt, Jonathan Broxton. Certainly straying from the norm. Honestly, its a good idea. While were all out there zigging he's zagging his way to the front of the pack. A similar strategy last year was effective but his team fizzled down the stretch. We'll see if he can pull off a better finish this year. For me, I'd rather build an all around decent team that has a good probability of winning any of the 10 categories than blatantly punt categories this early in the season. Plus at the end of the day pitchers are more injury prone than hitters (although messier did compile an unbelievably healthy pitching staff). At the end of the day it takes risks to win this league so at the very least Messier put himself in a good position to win...
Well thats what I've got for this update. I'll try and get these rolling more often as the season progresses. As for me, I'll be spending this weekend watching the final four matchups (although my bracket is pretty fucked), furiously finishing my taxes, and probably playing some golf. Catch you on the flip side...
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4 comments:
Why haven't you updated in 4 days, you lazy bum?
I can't believe I autodrafted my team... I drafted 4 guys who are not currently on Major League Rosters...
I hope someone signs Sheets!!
Yeah why did you auto draft?
It wasn't planned - I had luckily set some sort of draft order, so I had some say in the matter, but basically I went out to dinner with Julia and lost track of time.
I take some credit for my auto-draft, but by the later picks, it was straight up Yahoo rankings. oh well.
I'm in the "weaker division" so I still have high hopes for the season!
I'm here to defend my pick of Jimmy Rollins.
1. He's hitting at the top of a dirty, dirty lineup. If he plays 150 games -- something he has done every year of his career prior to 2008 -- 110 runs or more is very likely.
2. Stolen bases are very underrated. Only 9 guys stole 40 bases last year; 3 of them are Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn, and Willy Taveras, who probably shouldn't be anything more than pinch runners. Really, you're looking at 6 players who stole 40 bases and will provide value in at least 1 other category.
3. SS scarcity. Hanley is #1. Reyes is #2. Rollins is #3. After that, the drop-off is STEEP.
4. Look at the next handful of picks. Who would you honestly take over Rollins?
Josh Hamilton: He plays a deep position and he's only been an elite player once. He also missed 72 games in 2007, so I can't trust his 156 gp in 2008. Forgive me if I question the reliability and durability of a heroin addict.
Tim Lincecum: I strongly considered him here. Again, he's only done it once and even the best SP will help in 4 categories at most.
Ian Kinsler: Plays a thin position and has monster potential, but check this out. 2006: 42 games missed. 2007: 32 games missed. 2008: 41 games missed. In an 18 team league, during those missed games, you're stuck with a dipshit like Nick Punto. No thanks.
Evan Longoria: Going WAAAYYYY too high in drafts this year. People are drafting him as if he is certainly going to reach his upside this year. I'd like him in the 30-40 pick range. 17th overall is way too high, in my opinion.
Carlos Beltran: I considered Beltran as well. He would have been a decent selection at 13.
Ultimately, I went with the tremendous run and SB potential at a scarce position. I don't expect Rollins to duplicate his '07 numbers. I have him projected for 105-20-75-40-.283. Obviously, I feel this merits the 13th overall pick or I wouldn't have taken him.
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